The Fed, elections, oil, even the weather — Kalshi and Polymarket trade on all of it. Before you put money on a contract, Marty breaks down what it's actually worth: where the value is, where the fine-print traps are, and when the smart move is to pass. Every official call is scored on a public record, misses included.
Six ideas, no jargon. This is everything you need to understand any market on Kalshi or Polymarket — and every Marty verdict.
| The term | What it actually means |
|---|---|
| A contract | A yes-or-no question you can put money on — "Will the Fed cut rates by September?" Pick a side. If you're right, each contract pays $1. If you're wrong, it pays nothing. |
| The price | Quoted in cents, from 1¢ to 99¢. A 62¢ YES price means the crowd thinks there's about a 62% chance it happens. The price is the probability — that's the whole trick. |
| A good price | This is where money is made or lost. If a contract costs 62¢ but the real chance is closer to 75%, you're buying a dollar for 62 cents. If the real chance is 50%, you're overpaying for that same dollar. Marty's job is estimating the real number so you know which one you're looking at. |
| The other side | You're trading against other people, not a house. There's no bookie setting lines against you — the exchange just matches buyers with sellers and takes a small fee. |
| Resolution rules | The fine print that decides YES or NO. Two markets on the same event can pay out differently because of one clause — Marty reads the rules on every market so the fine print never surprises you. |
| Selling early | You're never locked in. Prices move as news lands, and you can sell your position anytime — it works like a stock, not a bet slip. |
The Good Judgment Project's superforecasters beat intelligence analysts with classified data by 30%. Marty applies their framework — reference classes, bias scans, calibrated ranges, pre-committed update triggers — to live prediction markets.
“The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta — the degree to which one is committed to belief updating.”
The framework is the same one Tetlock's superforecasters used to beat intelligence analysts with classified data by 30%. Marty applies it to live markets in seconds.
Step two of every analysis runs the same six cognitive checks. Every count below is a live tally logged from real analyses — not a marketing number.
Every official Marty call, with the estimate, the market price at the time, the resolution, and the Brier score. Misses stay published. That's the point.
| Date | Market | Platform | Our Call | Mkt Price | Result | Brier |
|---|
| Date | Market | Platform | Our Call | Mkt Price | Resolves |
|---|
Pro covers active traders end-to-end. Tester is genuinely free — three analyses a month, the full public scorecard, no card.
Tester tier is genuinely free. Read the full Tetlock-method analyses, see every Brier score, decide later if Pro earns its keep.
